What is the projected energy growth per region?
Increasing energy consumption is a function of both population and economic growth. In 2020, of the 7.77 billion people in the world, 59.5% live in Asia, 17.2 live in Africa, 9.16% in Europe, 8.38% in Latin America and the Caribbean, 4.74% in Northern America and 0.56% in Oceania, as shown on the graph on the right.
The world economy continues to grow over the next 30 years, driven by increasing wealth and living standards in the developing world, but at a slower rate than in the past. The expansion in global activity is supported by population growth, with the world’s population increasing by over 2 billion people to around 9.6 billion by 2050. Developing economies account for over 80% of the growth in the world economy, with China and India contributing around half of that increase
The second graph shows energy consumption by region over the past 55 years and highlights the importance of regional GPD with regards to total energy consumption.
Two clear examples of this are Africa and North America. Africa has the second largest population by continent, but has the lowest energy consumption, reflecting their low GDP. Conversely, North America has the largest energy consumption per capita.
BP published their energy outlook 2020 in which they project growth in global energy demand in three scenarios. This forecast shows an increase in demand driven entirely by emerging economies, underpinned by increasing prosperity and improving access to energy. Energy consumption in the developed world falls as improvements in energy efficiency outweigh demands from higher levels of activity.
The contrasting energy trends in developed and emerging economies lead to a continuing shift in the centre of gravity of energy consumption, with the emerging world accounting for around 70% of energy demand by 2050 in all three scenarios, up from around 50% as recently as 2008.
It is also interesting to note that China remains the largest market for energy for all three scenarios, accounting for over 20% of the world's energy demand in 2050, almost twice that of India.
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2020
This highlights the vital importance of the developing world demand for energy being met with clean energy technology.